Indyref2 en attente

La semaine dernière, Nicola Sturgeon a décidé qu’un nouveau référendum ne va pas être organisé entre la fin de 2018 et le début de 2019. (Cependant, selon elle il va « probablement » être organisé avant la fin de 2021.) Elle a raison. Dans les paroles de Theresa May, « maitenant n’est pas le temps ». Maitenant, un tel référendum serait sans aucun doute un échec. Il y avait déjà trop de référendums et d’éléctions dans cette décennie.

 

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Còrdadh eadar Tòraidhean is DUP

Dar a thig an naidheachd gun do rinn na Tòraidhean agus an DUP co-aonta eatorra mu dheireadh thall, smaointich mi mu dheidhinn na prìse agus mu dheidhinn riaghaltas Èireann a Tuath: Cia às a thèid am billean? Cò gheibheas maoineachadh nas ìsle gus ‘Maybot’ a chumail mar phrìomhaire? Agus ciamar as urrainn dha na Tòraidhean leigeil orra gu bheil iad neo-phàirteach, gu bheil iad nan ‘honest broker’?

Ach dar a leugh mi, beagan làithean na b’ fhaide, aiste le Martin Kettle, anns a tha e ag ràdh gun do rinn May bùrach dheth agus nach soirbhich na còmhraidhean ann an Stormont a-nis, thig e a-steach orm gur dòcha gur e seo ’s a bha i ag iarraidh bho thùs: cumaidh i sa chathair, agus bi eadhon tuilleadh cumhachd aice dar a thòisicheas riaghladh dìreach Westminsteir as dèidh dhan DUP agus SF fàilligeadh air ruigsinn còrdadh eatorrasan.

Agus ge be dè a bhios Rùnaire Stàite Èireann a Tuath ag agairt, tha an suidheachadh a’ dol an taobh sin. “James Brokenshire has indicated Westminster will step in soon and impose a budget.” ’S mathaid gun cùm May grèim air a’ bhillean aig a cheann thall?

 

ARLA

The most astonishing aspect of the latest Queen’s Speech was the reported reaction of the Association of Residential Letting Agents:

“A ban on letting agent fees will cost the sector jobs […]” – so far, so good, nobody wants to see jobs in his line of work go;

“[…] make buy-to-let investment even less attractive […]” – which actually promises pushing down the costs for common people needing a roof, rather than increasing the income of those already filthy rich;

” […] and ultimately result in the costs being passed on to tenants.” – and this is simply disingenuous: the middleman as a guardian of lower prices? Come off it …

 

General election 2017

Ten nights after the one following the polling day I should be able to write this without being too verbose. Even though my attitude towards the results remains rather ambivalent …

At first sight it’s great that Tories lost the overall majority. But one wonders whether a situation where Theresa May can only continue as the PM (which is by now obviously her primary, if not only, concern) by making a deal with the DUP isn’t actually even worse. Both on account of Northern Ireland, because there’s no way anybody could stay neutral in the current negotiations while being held in power by one of the two main opposing parties – even a Tory can see this; and on account of the rest of the UK, despite whatever Ruth Davidson may think (it seems this picture needs some retouching).

Likewise, while the UKIP failure looks fine, one mustn’t forget they only failed because Tories began emulating them.

Also, while I don’t mind the SNP’s loss of seats per se (in fact, I wouldn’t condemn them if, given what they stand for, they followed Sinn Féin’s example and never went to Westminster at all), I’d like them to either keep their seats or lose them to Lib Dems, as they did in the ‘Gaelic’ areas. The fact that not only Scotland’s south, but most of the area between Stirling and Banff & Buchan was gained by the Tories (thus helping to keep May in power) I can only call by the old phrase ‘a fucking disgrace’.

Much less importantly, it was fine to see Cable retake his seat and Carmichael retain his, but sad to see Salmond, Robertson and Clegg go (the first moreover with the biggest swing of the election).

And so on. With all that it was no wonder the sterling fell. With all that I was quite glad when the stream of menacing updates on the after-election day was interrupted by this pleasant tweet, reminding me that after all we were still only talking a peacetime UK general election, and while there were casualties, there were no fatalities.
 

PS The BBC usually makes a page with several interesting maps: this election’s one is here. And incidentally, there was also a Holyrood by-election taking place.

 

Leo Varadkar

Feumaidh mi aideachadh nach urrainn dhomh tuigsinn ciamar a thionndaidh Èirinn bho dhùthaich anns an robh feisen gèidhe toirmisgte gus 1993 gu tè far an do thachair ann an 2015 reifreann soirbheachail às leth phòsaidhean ghèidh, agus a-nis eadhon tè le prìomh mhinisteir gèidh. Ach chan eil sin gu diofar. ’S e an rud cudromach gun do dh’atharraich i ann. Agus an rud nas fheàrr gu bheil coltach nach robh ùidh mhòr aig daoine gun robh e gèidh no gun robh athair air tighinn bho na h-Innseachan, ach dè a dhèanas e le eaconomaidh na dùthcha. Sin mar am bu chòir cùisean a bhith.

 

North Korea: nothing has changed

Years ago I wondered how long would the world let the country play cat and mouse with it. So far, we keep seeing the same scenario: North Korea conducts another test defying the sanctions imposed on it, the US, Japan and South Korea call it unacceptable, China urges everybody’s restraint, sometimes there are more sanctions … and North Korea keeps doing what it pleases, all the time getting nearer the point where it will be able to start the third world war. Even when the US try to bring it down a peg, South Korea gets a new president who stops the effort, allegedly concerned with its possible environmental impact. And the North goes on stretching its wings …

 

Local elections 2017

The results are somewhat ambiguous.

On the one hand it’s nice that Glasgow has finally an SNP majority, and the fact that it’s not an overall majority and the party may go into a coalition with the Greens makes it in my eyes even better. On the other hand, of my other two favourite regions, Argyll & Bute saw the SNP win as well, but only just, and Perth & Kinross was a huge disappointment.

In Scotland overall, the upsurge in Tory seats is definitely worrying; that said, they’re still way behind the SNP and only slighly ahead of Labour. And the Greens gained more seats than the Lib Dems lost. (An interesting fact is that no party won an overall majority in any council.)

There were some funny moments too, like the Rubbish Party winning a seat in East Ayrshire only two months after coming into existence, and John Finnie’s tweet about the Greens now being the largest party in Orkney (they hold one seat, all the other 20 went to independent candidates).

UK-wise the picture is fairly bleak as well. Yes, it finally showed quite openly that, as John Nicolson put it, “Tories have absorbed [UKIP’s] irrationality & xenophobia, selling it to the public as strength & stability”. But the Tories didn’t win only on the strength of destroying UKIP; the only other parties who made gains were Plaid Cymru and the Greens.

Then again, local politics doesn’t mirror national politics all that faithfully. The results of 8 June will no doubt be somewhat different.

Only I’m feart they’ll be worse.

 

January ’17 news

The eyes of the world were unsurprisingly mostly directed at the new US president’s first days in office. He began by attacking his predecessor’s health care and climate change achievements. This failed to bring as much publicity as hoped for, so he banned entry to people from certain countries. (That would occupy journalists enough to have little time left to ponder about his following near-U-turns on the issues of NATO, Taiwan and Putin.)

Closer to home, Martin McGuinness resigned as NI deputy first minister to necessitate snap Stormont election; Theresa May realistically admitted UK would leave the common market; and the Supreme Court decided that the referendum result wasn’t binding. Not that it made much difference except perhaps to some lawyers’ wallets.

Sadly but naturally, there were some deaths: Peter Sarstedt, Gorden Kaye and Tam Dalyell.

And the number of pollution zones in Scotland has risen to 38, with Hope Street, despite its name, still topping the list. It was cold comfort to remind oneself that Edinburgh and Glasgow had more green space than any of the other 10 most populated UK cities.

 

December ’16 news

December news in February, hmm . . . anyway, here goes:

There were some minor surprises in politics. The Icelandic Pirate Party was asked to try and form a new government (but would later fail to become part of it). Donald Trump sort of broke decades lasting pretence that the US doesn’t recognise Taiwan (more publicity stunts would follow). The European Court of Justice ruled against the Snooper’s Charter (giving the UK government another bad reason respect the referendum result and leave the EU). And the SNP disclosed that despite the comtinuing devolution of powers from London to Edinburgh, the Scotland Office’s budget rose over the last five years by 20% (although a much more interesting question was how much would Derek Mackay have to compromise to have his first budget voted through Holyrood).

A sadder surprise was the death of George Michael at the age of 53 (making me look up what was it he sang at all, the biggest surprise being Freedom! 90). On the other hand, air an làimh eile, bha deagh naidheachd ann gun do chomharraich Tormod MacGilleathain an t-ochdadamh cho-là-breith aige (’s dòcha gum bu chòir dhomh The Leper’s Bell a cheannach mar faidhle Khindle is a leughadh a-rithist).

More good news were the opening of a new Edinburgh railway station and the reopening of Kelvingrove Museum’s Life Gallery (pity I may never see it again).

The sporting surprise, for me at least, was how close to each other the teams at the bottom of the Scottish Premiership were: Partick Thistle, last (ie 12th) three matches before the end of the month, got by just two wins to the 6th place and after a Hogmanay draw ended the year as 7th. Another sports-related news was Andy Murray’s knighthood; but to be honest, I admired more Lynn Faulds for rejecting her MBE – or rather, for her reasons to do so.

 

November ’16 news

Quite a lot happened during the 30 days. The bad news first.

The High Court decided triggering Article 50 must be first approved by the Parliament, and different lawyers later figured they could make some dough out of challenging whether leaving the EU means automatically leaving the EEA as well.

Even so, Brexit still has a chance; across the Pond, Trump has become US president, while Republicans still dominate the Congress. Surprisingly, he began by claiming the US would quit the TPP trade deal, which may mean the axe for the TTIP too; let’s hope the presidency won’t likewise mean the axe for the Aberdeen Bay Wind Farm.

One side effect was that the de facto final approval of the Snooper’s Charter went by almost unnoticed by the media.

Also, eight military bases in Scotland, including Fort George, were chosen for closure; CLÌ Gàidhlig did fold at last; T in the Park is to skip 2017; but the saddest day was probably the one on which we learned that Leonard Cohen had died. (This even made me post specifically about that, while the article about Fidel Castro’s death I didn’t even read.)

And of course, the first storm of the winter and the consequent floods came to the South; nevertheless, the North experienced the sunniest November on record. Which brings us to the good news.

Holyrood voted to finally put an end to the tax freeze, at least for the top four bands. Andy Murray became world number one. Kelvin Hall reopened after the first phase of its refurbishment. All three Quensferry Crossing towers are now connected. Beavers were allowed to stay in Scotland.

Across the Pond, marihuana for recreational use was legalised in the 5th and 6th US states (California and Massachusetts); and globally, the Paris climate deal came into force.

Given that Trump may yet do his best to sabotage the Paris deal, several big bad news, a few wee heartwarming ones. Seeing where the world’s heading makes one wonder whether there’s really any reason to envy the younger ones …

 

October ’16 news

For almost a half of the month I was still boozing and thus offline, but I stopped this in time to learn that Bob Dylan was awarded the Nobel Prize for Literature (well deserved, there is no reason why songs’ lyrics should not be perceived as literature) and that Nicola Sturgeon announced the Indyref2 bill (published a week later – it is virtually the same as the first one).

As regards culture, it is also worth mentioning that the Burrell Collection (one of the few really famous Glasgow museums I never found time to visit) closed for a 4-year revamp. As regards politics, it is also worth mentioning that proposals for Westminster constituencies’ boundary changes were published (the Tory government sticking to the idea that there are too many MPs elected by voters and too few Lords chosen by the PM).

Getting a bit more international, the EU-Canada trade deal called CETA was blocked by Wallonia but after some more negotiating signed anyway (I wonder what they promised them). Getting completely international, it was amusing to read that the Icelandic Pirate Party became the joint second in number of seats in the Alþingi (with the Greens, which too tells us how different Icelandic politics is from ours most).

What else? The minimum price saga drags on, while the one of the oil rig grounded on Lewis is over (at least as far as we are concerned), and work to spoil Edinburgh city centre has begun.

 

September ’16 news

The only really ‘new’ story was that of the first Church of England bishop’s publicly coming out.

The rest were either developments of old stories, mar an co-dhùnadh gun tèid an clàr-ola bho Leòdhas dhan Tuirc, the first charge in the Volswagen fraud, David Cameron’s resignation as an MP, and the approval of Hinkley Point C; or things which were expected, like the TV licences becoming necessary for legal watching of iPlayer programmes and the publication of Scotland’s legislative programme for the next parliamentary session.

Of course, as I said earlier, since the 15th of the month I’d been on a bender, so I have no idea what was happening during the second half of the month.

 

August ’16 news

Not a bad month for transport: the ScotRail strikes over guards were finally called off to allow further negotiations; Queen Street station tunnel reopened and so did Glasgow Subway; and the Tay Road Bridge was 50 years old. The exception was the oil rig, travelling from Norway to Turkey, which was blown ashore on a western Lewis beach instead, losing thousands of gallons of diesel and later temporarily moved to a bay on the other side of the island.

Of course, there were the Olympics in Rio, but I’m not into this kind of showbiz, so I’ve only seen Ross Murdoch qualify to semifinals and my namesake create a new British record before ending 5th – yet later with not one but two silver medals from relays (the first with 2 other Scots, or 3 if you count in Renwick). But somehow I admired no less Ieuan Lloyd, whether bottle-fliping or dabbing – and even more than all these Nick Skelton. Winning an equestrian gold aged 58 … can you beat it? (Of course, I couldn’t help noticing that Team GB ended second in the medal table, with 16 Scots getting such a disc or two.)

In other news, bha briseadh-dùil ann mu dheidhinn fo-thiotalan air BBC Alba, on a tha Urras a’ BhBC dhen bheachd nach urrain dhaibh leigeil le luchd-amhairc an roghainn a dhèanamh; Michael Russel was appointed the Scottish government’s Brexit negotiator, although the UK government later indicated they’d only pay lip service to negotiating with Holyrood; Poles overtook Indians as the largest migrant group both in the UK and in Scotland (which slightly surprised me, I thought they’d already done so); and the Scottish Index of Multiple Deprivation named (on p 10) both ‘my’ Keppochhill and Tommy’s Wyndford among the 5% consistently most deprived areas in Scotland since 2004 (which didn’t; but it is interesting that the allegedly most and least deprived areas in Scotland are only about 7 miles distant).

 

July ’16 news

It looked a bit as if everybody – except for Glasgow Subway, which closed to be reconstructed – was in a hurry to have everything over and done with so they could go for holidays.

The Scottish Parliament was officially opened, only to be effectively adjourned for several weeks (then again I suspect they do this on a regular basis). Two days later, Nigel Farage resigned, as his “political ambition has been achieved” (good on him, if he means it). Two days later, the Chilcot Inquiry completed its report (having taken seven years to find out what everybody but Tony Blair already knew anyway). The following week, with Fox, Crabb and Gove already out, Leadsom surprisingly quit the final and two days later Cameron handed over 10 Downing Street to Theresa May (probably a lesser evil than Gove, but only just), who the next day formed a new government: nice to see Osborne and Gove go, fun (if a bit bitter) to see Johnson become the Foreign Secretary.

Westminster still managed to vote through Trident renewal (the British Empire strikes back) … and then nothing, until at the end of the month, the results of a major online child sex abuse investigation were announced* and the Right to Buy ended in Scotland (so all’s well that ends well).
 

* With Det Insp Andy McWilliam reported as claiming that “new technology meant there was no way for perpetrators to hide or erase what they had done online […] Whether they throw the computer in the bath or not, we can find what they have looked at. And we can use covert technology to identify who you are and where you are”, in other words confirming that all that hullabaloo about the Snooper’s Charter is just smoke and mirrors. Big Brother has come.

 

June ’16 news

Except for the EU referendum and its aftermath, which will probably remain not just the news of the month, but the news of the year, precious little happened, and none of it good. In Orlando, Florida, a religious maniac murdered 49 people in the Pulse gay bar; and a series of rail strikes began over disagreement between ScotRail and the RMT about more driver-only-operation trains. It seems obvious that at least one party is rather economical with the truth when describing the talks, but which one it is only the participants can know.

 

EU referendum

Once again I watched the results of a popular vote come in during the night. To begin with it was an absolute thriller, with the lead switching from one side to the other several times.

(In retrospect it seems the reason was quicker counts in Scotland, where every single local authority area voted to remain, even if in Moray only just. The turnout, however, was only 67.2%, as compared with almost 85% during the 2014 referendum.)

But by the time I had to go to work Leave was almost half a million votes ahead and before 7am it lead by about a million, with only 9 results still to come, so I surreptitiously texted Rob the result was a success. (In the end the difference was more than a million and a quarter.) To my pleasant surprise an his.

* * * * * * * *

Shortly after, David Cameron announced he’d resign; Nicola Sturgeon said a second Scottish referendum was highly likely; the pound began to plummet; people began signing a rather bizarre petition (“we lost so we want the result annulled”); some Leave proponents showed their duplicity claiming the actual leaving can wait for several years; nevertheless, EU leaders – quite rightly – refused Brexit talks before the UK triggers Article 50 . . .

. . . and my relationship with The Guardian took another turn. In 2014, with the exception of Kevin McKenna, they were just about all for Scotland remaining in the UK. Now they just about all turned pro-indy. It seems that being leftist they just love centralism: “the best option would be Scotland under the UK and the UK under the EU, but short of that let’s be under the EU rather than under the UK, because the EU is a Bigger Brother”. When this appeared as the Guardian view, I stopped visiting the site again (except for their Country diary, needless to say).

By the way, some more interesting maps and charts here.

 

May ’16 news

Of course, the main news was the elections and the aftermath. Before that, Sir David Attenborough became the latest celebrity nonagerian, and the BBC White Paper was unveiled: mostly it seemed to be about money and encroaching on the broadcaster’s independence, with some specific proposals for Scotland agus moladh airson leantainn le craoladh sa Ghàidhlig.

After the elections, while in London the Queen’s Speech allegedly included fines for companies sending spam emails without first getting consent (could it still be called spam if they did?), the new Scottish government announced that for the next eight years the operation of the Clyde and Hebrides Ferries Network will remain with CalMac, rather than being handed over to Serco. Muirfield, however, lost its right to host another Open after a vote to remain a men-only club. (I’m not sure to which degree the following criticism is due to the unadmitted knowledge that if there was a women-only golf club, men simply wouldn’t give a damn about it.) Shortly after, the Kirk voted to allow ministers in civil gay marriages, although not gay weddings within the Kirk, and the Scottish Parliament obtained its first law-making powers under the 2016 Scotland Act.

Mostly good news, then. Not so across the Atlantic, where Donald Trump in the end won the Republican presidential primaries, and Alberta, Canada had to declare emergency in response to a wildfire which destroyed about a tenth of Fort McMurray and later threatened to come back to claim more. In retrospect this kind of puts the feminists’ (and my) obsession with the Muirfield vote into perspective.

 

Brexit

Bha mi a’ cnuasachadh agus a’ cnuasachadh . . . agus dh’fhuasgail mi gu bheil mi airson ‘Fàgail’. Seadh, ’s mathaid gum biodh e na bu mhiosa dhomh fhèin, ach on a tha mi dhen bheachd gum biodh e na b’ fheàrr do mo dhùthaich, tha e nas onaraiche mar seo.

 

Post-election

Like five years ago, I had a night shift after the election; but I had a smartphone now so I could – furtively – follow the results coming in. The first one came from Orkney: I was glad to see a resolute Lib Dem hold despite the Alistair Carmichael affair.

I won’t list here all the results that thrilled me during the night and the following day, there were quite a few and I’ve already forgotten the chronology; it’s sufficient to mention the two Glasgow constituencies I’d lived in: Kelvin an SNP hold, Maryhill and Springburn an SNP gain.

In the end I was reasonably satisfied with the final result: I concluded I preferred a non-overall SNP majority, as long as they only neeeded help from the increased number of Green seats to have one. No loss to the Lib Dem seats number was good news too; the only flaw was the surge in Tory seats. Then again, Scottish Tories today are possibly a more respectable opposition then Scottish Labour.

What surprised me was the discrepancy between constituency and regional seats, whether it was the SNP in Glasgow or the Tories in South Scotland. (A telltale graphical comparison can be found in Wikimedia Commons.) It seems that lots of voters were unwilling to give both their votes to whichever one party.

Elsewhere, Labour won in Wales, yet likewise without an overall majority, while Plaid Cymru overtook Tories as the main opposition party, and UKIP, rather than the Greens, overtook Lib Dems; still further south, Sadiq Khan was elected to succeed Boris Johnson as the Mayor of London.

* * * * * * * *

Later, Nicola Sturgeon decided she preferred a minority government to a coalition; Ken Macintosh took over from Tricia Marwick as Holyrood presiding officer; Sturgeon was confirmed as the continuing first minister and made the usual reshuffle. After all those years it’s strange to see John Swinney moved to Education, with his former portfolio divided between Derek Mackay and Keith Brown, but that’s life . . . and politics.
 

 
Some more interesting maps here; a list of gained/lost contituencies here; the best commentary I came across here (by Lesley Riddoch).